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NBA DFS Picks Breakdown (Tuesday, Nov. 22): Don’t Forget About Tobias Harris

Tuesday features a four-game slate starting at 7:30pm ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lines.

Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock. Use our FanDuel promo to get three months of free NBA League Pass.

NBA DFS Point Guard Picks

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Has De’Anthony Melton entered stud territory? I think the answer is yes for the time being. Melton has already been a very good fantasy producer this season, averaging 1.02 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and he’s coming off 49.0 FanDuel points in his last contest. He’s played at least 36 minutes in back-to-back games, and he should continue to play as much as he can handle with James Harden and Tyrese Maxey sidelined.

Additionally, Joel Embiid will join Harden and Maxey on the sidelines for at least the next two games. That opens up even more usage for the rest of the roster. Melton has increased his usage rate to 29.0% with all three players off the floor this season, resulting in an average of 1.30 FanDuel points per minute. That’s over a sample size of just 19 minutes, but it gives a glimpse of the kind of upside that Melton brings to the table.


Value

Bones Hyland It continues to get more expensive, but it still stands out as one of the best per-dollar options at the position in our NBA Models. Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray are both doubtful for Tuesday’s matchup vs. the Pistons, and Milton has dominated in their absence. He’s posted a Plus/Minus of at least +15.37 on DraftKings in back-to-back games, and he’s coming off more than 38 minutes in his last outing. Hyland is one of the best per-minute contributors in the league, racking up an average of 1.29 DraftKings points per minute this season. The Pistons have also been the worst team in the league in terms of defensive efficiency, so this has all the makings of a smash spot.


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On the other side of that matchup, Alec Burks has some appeal for the Pistons. He’s played at least 24 minutes in back-to-back games, and he’s scored at least 25.25 DraftKings points in both contests. His playing time is trending upwards, and he’s averaged 1.08 DraftKings points per minute this year. His minutes should be safe with Cade Cunningham and Sadiq Bey sidelined, and he’s not projected for a ton of ownership on this slate.

Chris Paul will miss another game for the Suns, so it’s safe to fire up Cameron Payne once again on FanDuel. His $6,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 85%, and he’s averaged 1.14 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +10.02 over his past 10 games, and he draws a matchup vs. a Lakers squad that ranks fourth in pace on Tuesday. The Suns’ implied team total of 118.5 ranks first on the slate.

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

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Devin Booker is another member of the Suns who should continue to benefit from CP3’s absence. He wasn’t really needed in the team’s last game – he played just 29.5 minutes in a blowout win – but he scored at least 48.5 DraftKings points in his three previous contests. That includes a massive 78.0 DraftKings points two games ago vs. the Jazz. Overall, Booker has averaged 1.22 DraftKings points per minute with Paul off the floor, making him one of the strongest pay-up options on the slot.


Value

Shake Milton is another fantastic source of value for the 76ers on Tuesday. He moved into the starting lineup in the team’s last game, and he put together his best game of the year. He had 27 points in 38.1 minutes, and his 26.8% usage rate was his second-highest mark of the year. Milton finished with 36.0 DraftKings points in that contest, and that was with Embiid posting a 37.3% usage rate of his own. He should be a focal point for a 76ers’ offense desperately in need of scoring.


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Kentavious Caldwell-Pope stands out as a strong option on DraftKings, where his $4,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 84%. He’s not the best per-minute producer, but he should be able to make up for it with volume. He’s currently projected for just under 32 minutes in our NBA Models, and players with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.53 (per the Trends tool).

Jaden Ivey hasn’t taken as big of a step forward as some were hoping with Cunningham sidelined, but he’s still been a decent option. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in seven of his past nine games on FanDuel, where his $6,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 79%.

NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

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Bruce Brown stands out as the clear top option at the position on DraftKings. Unfortunately, he’s only SG-eligible on FanDuel, but he makes for a strong option there as well.

Brown has taken on a sizable role for the Nuggets with Jokic and Murray sidelined, particularly as a distributor. He has at least seven dimes in back-to-back games, which is easily the top mark on the team. Hyland is the only player even close to Brown in that department, and he’s a reserve option. No other starter has more than four total assists in those contests, so the offense is run almost exclusively through Brown when Hyland is off the floor.

Brown has averaged 0.95 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he’s already a pretty good contributor on a per-minute basis. He owns the top median and ceiling projects at the position on DraftKings, which you’ll gladly take with a $6,000 player.


Value

on FanDuel, Bojan Bogdanovic is your best value at the position. His $5,800 price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 92%, and his matchup vs. The Nuggets results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.22. Most of Bogdanovic’s fantasy value comes from his scoring ability, and he should see a slight bump in that department with Bey out of the lineup for the time being. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in six straight games on FanDuel, and he has a good chance to make it seven in a row on Tuesday.


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Danuel House Jr. has been one of the worst per-minute producers in basketball this season, averaging a paltry 0.47 FanDuel points per minute. He played a whopping 39.1 minutes in his last outing, but he finished with just 18.9 FanDuel points. That’s pretty hard to fathom. He should see another sizable workload on Tuesday, and he has a decent chance of returning value on his $4,500 salary. That said, he doesn’t offer much in terms of upside.

Speaking of minutes, very few players in basketball play more minutes than Michael Bridges. The team didn’t need to push him in their last game, but he had at least 39.4 minutes in four of his previous six games. Bridges has also increased his per-minute production to 0.90 FanDuel points per minute this season, so he’s capable of making the most of his monster workload.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

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Tobias Harris has been upgraded to probable after missing the 76ers’ last two contests, and he should step into a big workload. He’s sacrificed a lot of his offensive game playing next to Embiid, Harden, and Maxey, but he’s proven to be a capable scorer when called up. He increased his usage rate to 28.8% in nine games without Embiid last season, resulting in an average of 37.52 DraftKings points 34.3 minutes per game. Maxey played in each of those contests, and he posted a 27.4% usage rate of his own. It’s possible that Harris is asked to do even more scoring with Maxey joining Embiid and Harden on the sidelines.


Value

Have we finally seen the return of Ben Simmons? He’s looked like the old version of himself over the past two games, racking up at least 39.0 DraftKings points in both contests. He’s found his scoring touch, averaging 18.5 points per game, to go along with his strong work in the peripheral categories.

Simmons is probably due for some regression as a scorer – he’s shot an absurd 17-19 from the field in his past two games – but most of his shots have a pretty low degree of difficulty. Regardless, he’s expected to see around 32 minutes on Tuesday, and he’s capable of averaging well over a fantasy point per minute. That keeps him firmly in play at $6,300 on DraftKings.


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Aaron Gordon stands out as another elite value on DraftKings. His $5,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 96%, and he should provide more upside than usual if he’s able to suit up. He’s averaged 1.24 DraftKings points per minute with Jokic and Murray off the floor this season, albeit over a sample size of just 10 minutes. He’s currently questionable with an illness, but he’s someone to consider if he’s in the lineup.

Anthony Davis has been excellent for the Lakers recently, scoring at least 58.3 FanDuel points in four straight games. Each of those contests has been with LeBron James out of the lineup, and he’s questionable again on Tuesday. Davis would become the top stud option if LeBron is unavailable once again, even in a tough matchup vs. the Suns.

NBA DFS Center Picks

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Deandre Ayton It remains very affordable at $6,800 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 88%. His production has been a bit down to start the year, but he’s coming off at least 36.25 DraftKings points in back-to-back games. He needed only 26.8 minutes to reach that threshold vs. the Knicks, and he should play more minutes if today’s game is more competitive. The Lakers also represent an elite matchup, giving Ayton an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.82.


Value

Thomas Bryant He has suited up for the Lakers in their past two games, and he’s coming off 23 minutes in their most recent contest. He responded with 27.75 DraftKings points, and he has the potential to repeat that production vs. the Suns. There’s no guarantee he sees that much playing time again – he’s currently projected for 17.7 minutes in our NBA Models – but he has some upside at $3,400.


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De’Andre Jordan remains affordable at $4,500 on DraftKings, and he should continue to start in place of Jokic. He’s averaged right under a fantasy point per minute, and he played nearly 34 minutes in the Nuggets’ last game.

The Grizzlies have upgraded Ja Morant to questionable, and his return would decrease the value of the rest of their players. That said, Steven Adams It would be interesting if he ruled out. He’s seen more opportunities as a playmaker with Morant off the floor this season, and he’s already a solid contributor on the glass.

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